There is no need for exaggerations or scaremongering, the reality of a no deal brexit is there in plain sight for everyone to see. No amount of dressing up, talking down or futuristic spin will change the facts that a no deal brexit will be both chaotic and ultimately catastrophic for this country.
Remember the EU stance is that “NOTHING IS AGREED UNTIL EVERYTHING IS AGREED”
The Conservative led UK Government expects 27 countries to bow down and change its laws and procedures just to suit our exit from the EU and we all know that this is not going to happen.
At 11pm GMT on the 29th of March 2019 if a formal withdrawal treaty has not been signed, all EU rules and regulations will instantly cease to apply to the UK. This means that at 11.01pm we will see an end to every EU law, instrument and agency, there will be no remaining agreements between the UK and the EU on how to manage customs, trade, travel or citizen’s rights and we have nothing prepared that we can instantly replace them with.
So knowing that, it becomes apparent that a no deal brexit will from the second we leave the EU adversely affect Travel, Trade, Investment, Finance, Tourism, Imports, Exports, Manufacturing, Immigration, Security and Jobs.
We will be out of the European Aviation Safety Agency, which means that no British plane or pilot will be certified or insured. The UK will automatically be excluded from the Single European Sky and SESAR (Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research) programme. World Trade Organisation rules do not provide a fall-back position for aviation, meaning that without securing a deal with the EU, UK operators would lose ‘Community air carrier’ status and therefore intra-EU traffic rights. This will also affect flights to the USA & other countries that operate flights to one another through the EASA.
The EU is a single market in which no tariffs are imposed on imports and exports between member states. More than 50 per cent of our exports go to EU countries. We will be out of the single market and customs union and will be subject to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. UK exports would face the same customs checks and tariffs as other countries outside of the EU. This means that every lorry will have to be checked at French ports for tariffs and standards, even a few minutes extra per vehicle will result in massive tailbacks, bringing cross-channel traffic to a standstill. There will be chaos and confusion at the borders, the inevitable delays, tariffs and custom checks will drive up food prices and lead to a shortage of essential goods.
Being out of the single market and customs union will also result in a hard border between the Republic of Ireland & Northern Ireland, which will not only cause delays but will also put at risk the 20-year-old “Good Friday Agreement”.
With over three million jobs in the UK being linked to trade with the European Union we have already seen the effects of uncertainty with a mass exodus of manufacturing companies moving production and services to EU countries, this has resulted in a significant number of job losses with more to come as production is further reduced and new factory closures are announced.
There will be an immediate end to the free movement of people across the EU resulting in labour shortages. This will also result in a skills shortage in the UK workforce that will hurt some sectors including our health service. Even now before brexit has happened we are seeing skilled EU workers leaving the UK and have witnessed a severe drop in seasonal workers resulting in crops being left in fields to rot.
These are not the only issues that the UK will need to overcome after brexit, there are also a number of other areas that will be affected by a no deal departure from the EU.
EU citizens living and working here in the UK and UK nationals living in the EU will find themselves in citizenship limbo, neither legal nor illegal and subject to whatever laws may transpire following our no deal departure. They could even lose their rights to medical treatment, pensions and state funded benefits.
The financial services sector is Britain’s largest source of exports and tax revenue with a quarter of the financial services sector’s annual revenue coming from business related to the EU. Financial firms based in the UK would lose their rights to ‘passport’ freely across the continent. Many UK based banks and financial services companies are pushing through plans to try to establish bases within EU member states as the realism of a no deal brexit starts to sink in.
Pharmaceutical manufacturers in the UK will have to have all their products retested in an EU country before they can be distributed within the bloc. AstraZeneca, one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies in the UK, whose top-selling drugs treat heart conditions, diabetes and cancer has had to set up new testing facilities in Sweden, to ensure that their products are EU-regulated. This may help them trade within the EU but does not negate the distribution problems they will face trying to navigate new tariffs and customs checks.
The UK will leave Europol, meaning that it will be locked out of Europe's policing and security databases. It is through the EU that we exchange criminal and passenger records and work together on counter-terrorism. We would also drop out of shared processes such as the European arrest warrant, which requires EU members automatically to transfer a criminal suspect or sentenced person to the issuing state. All of these existing agreements would come to an end until new inter-agency agreements were agreed and put into place.
British Expats will have to budget for a health insurance policy that covers their medical costs in full as existing EU agreements will end on brexit day. This will also apply when travelling to the EU, as you will be legally required to take out health insurance.
We will lose access to the Public Regulated Service (PRS), which is only available to EU members and be shut out of the more accurate, encrypted and secured version for use by government and military, this will hinder everything from search-and-rescue to targeting missiles.
Mobile phone roaming charges were banned by the EU in 2017, but once the UK leaves those rules will no longer apply to British phone contracts, meaning that UK citizens travelling to the EU will once again have to pay expensive roaming charges.
Anyone driving in the EU after 11pm GMT on the 29th of March 2019 will need an International Driving Permit and a Green Card. These are internationally recognised certificates that provide proof that you have a driving licence and insurance policy in force in the UK that meets the minimum legal requirements for that country. At the moment an International Driving Permit and a Green Card is not required in the EU as they were replaced by the European Motor Insurance Directives which we will no longer be part of following a no deal brexit.
We will also lose the global protection that the EU gives on products such as Scotch Whisky through its "Protected Geographical Indication" (PGI). Without this protection we will find it difficult to stop other countries copying our brands and in theory counterfeiting our products.
REMEMBER THAT NOTHING IS AGREED UNTIL EVERYTHING IS AGREED
We are the ones leaving. If we leave with nothing then we will still have to pay our exit bill and any attempt by the UK to hold the EU to ransom over divorce payments will undoubtedly result in sanctions being imposed further restricting our capacity for trade and movement.
The UK is powerless to stop all this from happening. It is the EU that makes the rules and in a no deal scenario it is the UK that will have to make new arrangements for trade, immigration, customs, tariffs, legislation etc. in order to function within the boundaries of the EU.
A no deal Brexit will take years to recover from, it’s time for Scotland to leave the Westminster dominated union and go it alone…
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